OpenAI CEO predicts emergence of ‘superintelligence’ within eight years

OpenAI CEO Predicts Emergence of “Superintelligence” Within Eight Years

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has made a bold assertion that artificial intelligence (AI) could progress to the level of “superintelligence” within the next eight years. In his latest essay, titled “The Intelligence Age,” Altman outlines his vision of AI’s potential to dramatically enhance human prosperity.

In his essay, which was posted on a website bearing his name, Altman posits that the advent of superintelligence could be achieved within a timeframe as short as “a few thousand days.” He shared the essay via a post on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter), which has garnered significant attention, amassing 12,000 likes and 2,400 reposts by Tuesday afternoon.

Altman equates superintelligence with the broad industry and academic goal of achieving “artificial general intelligence” (AGI)—a level of AI capable of reasoning at or beyond human capabilities. He has been vocal about this prospect in previous interviews, including one with the Financial Times last year.

The essay is an optimistic outlook on AI’s potential, suggesting that it could serve as a new societal infrastructure, leading to unprecedented levels of shared prosperity. “In the future, everyone’s lives can be better than anyone’s life is now,” writes Altman. He acknowledges that prosperity alone might not suffice for human happiness but argues that it would significantly enhance lives worldwide.

While Altman’s essay offers little in the way of technical specifics, it puts forth several major claims about AI’s potential:

• AI is the result of “thousands of years of compounding scientific discovery and technological progress,” culminating in today’s advanced computer chips.
• The “deep learning” models responsible for generative AI have proven effective, contrary to claims of sceptics.
• Enhanced computing power is continually evolving these deep learning algorithms, suggesting that “AI is going to get better with scale.”
• Expanding the computer infrastructure is crucial for disseminating AI as widely as possible.
• AI is unlikely to eliminate jobs but instead will create new types of work, advance scientific endeavours, and offer personal assistance such as tailored education for students.

However, Altman’s essay stands in opposition to various growing concerns about AI’s ethical, social, and economic impacts. Critics argue that the optimistic narrative around scaling AI and achieving superintelligence glosses over significant issues.

Prominent AI critic Gary Marcus has voiced scepticism about the feasibility of AGI. Echoing this sentiment, AI scholar and entrepreneur Yoav Shoham recently told ZDNET that simply scaling up computing will not suffice to progress AI, advocating for scientific exploration beyond deep learning.

Altman’s essay does not address notable issues such as AI bias or the rapidly increasing energy demands from AI data centres, which pose possible environmental risks. Environmentalists like Bill McKibben warn that the pace of AI development could outstrip the ability to expand renewable energy resources, suggesting that caution may be warranted.

Altman’s essay arrives shortly after the publication of critical assessments of AI. Gary Marcus’s book “Taming Silicon Valley,” released by MIT Press, discusses potential risks from generative AI systems, from societal disruptions to ethical violations. Marcus criticises Altman for using hype to support OpenAI’s goals, questioning the appropriateness of a company board determining when AGI has been achieved instead of the scientific community.

Another critical work, “AI Snake Oil” by Princeton scholars Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, accuses Altman of attempting to manipulate regulatory discussions to benefit OpenAI. The authors draw parallels with tactics used by tobacco companies in the mid-20th century to evade regulatory constraints.

While Altman’s vision for AI is expansive and ambitious, it will be crucial to observe whether future communications from his platform will expand on these ideas or address the significant critiques posed by his detractors.

Source: Noah Wire Services